SAF Supply Is Growing, but the Gap Remains Enormous
Sustainable aviation fuel production is continuing to increase, but the industry remains far from supplying the volumes required to significantly reduce aviation’s dependence on conventional jet fuel.
The International Air Transport Association expects global SAF production to reach approximately 2.4 million tonnes in 2026.
That represents only around 0.8 percent of total aviation fuel consumption.
Production has increased from approximately 1 million tonnes in 2024 and 1.9 million tonnes in 2025, but the pace of expansion remains modest compared with the scale of global jet fuel demand.
IATA estimates that the additional cost of purchasing the available SAF in 2026 will reach around $4.3 billion for airlines, highlighting that limited supply remains accompanied by a substantial price premium.
Announced Projects Do Not Equal Actual Production
On paper, the future SAF pipeline looks considerably larger.
Around 200 SAF projects have been announced globally, representing as much as 30 million tonnes of potential annual production capacity by 2030.
The problem is that many remain at an early stage.
IATA estimates that only around 35 percent of announced capacity is currently operating or under construction and expects only about 60 percent of the total announced capacity to ultimately materialise.
That would leave actual 2030 capacity closer to 20 million tonnes rather than the 30 million tonnes suggested by headline project announcements.
Financing, policy uncertainty, feedstock availability, permitting and technology scale-up all influence whether a proposed project reaches Final Investment Decision and construction.
Technology and Feedstocks Are the Next Bottlenecks
The SAF market also remains highly dependent on a relatively narrow group of production technologies and feedstocks.
HEFA, which converts oils and fats into renewable aviation fuel, remains the only pathway considered commercially mature enough for significant near-term expansion.
Alcohol-to-Jet and gasification Fischer–Tropsch projects are advancing, but have not yet achieved the same level of commercial deployment, while Power-to-Liquids remains at an earlier stage.
European data illustrate the concentration clearly. In the first ReFuelEU Aviation reporting data, 81.1 percent of SAF supplied was produced from used cooking oil, while 69 percent of SAF feedstock originated outside the European Union.
Diversifying production pathways is therefore becoming essential. Without larger volumes from Alcohol-to-Jet, Fischer–Tropsch and eventually synthetic aviation fuels, the industry risks competing for a limited pool of waste oils and other HEFA feedstocks.
The challenge facing SAF is no longer simply proving that the fuel can work.
The next phase is industrial: financing plants, securing sustainable feedstocks, scaling new technologies and converting a large global project pipeline into physical fuel delivered to airports.
Sources
International Air Transport Association — SAF Production Volumes Still Disappointing, June 6, 2026
International Air Transport Association — A Third of Announced SAF Capacity May Never Take Off, June 26, 2026
European Union Aviation Safety Agency — ReFuelEU Aviation Annual Technical Report