SAF Output Continues to Grow, but Slowly
Global sustainable aviation fuel production is expected to reach approximately 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, according to the International Air Transport Association.
That represents only around 0.8 percent of total aviation fuel consumption.
Production has increased significantly from approximately 1 million tonnes in 2024 and 1.9 million tonnes in 2025, but the pace of growth is expected to slow during 2026.
For an industry that expects SAF to become one of its principal tools for reducing lifecycle carbon emissions, the current share remains extremely small.
IATA estimates that airlines will pay approximately $4.3 billion in additional fuel costs associated with the SAF available during 2026.
Future Demand Requires a Dramatically Larger Industry
The difference between current production and the volumes required for long-term aviation decarbonisation remains substantial.
IATA estimates that annual SAF supply would need to reach around 500 million tonnes by 2050 to support the airline industry’s net-zero pathway.
Compared with expected 2026 production, that would require SAF supply to increase by more than 200 times over the coming decades.
Bio-based SAF is expected to provide an important part of that future supply, but available biomass and waste feedstocks are finite.
The industry will therefore also need significant volumes from additional pathways, including Alcohol-to-Jet, Fischer–Tropsch fuels and synthetic e-SAF produced from renewable electricity, hydrogen and captured carbon.
Scaling SAF Requires More Than New Production Plants
IATA argues that increasing SAF production will require changes across the wider energy and aviation system.
Renewable electricity and sustainable feedstock supply must expand alongside new fuel-production capacity.
Producers also need access to pipelines, storage facilities and airport fuel infrastructure so that sustainable fuels can reach airlines efficiently.
Investment frameworks and production incentives are another critical factor because many proposed SAF facilities require substantial capital before reaching Final Investment Decision.
The association also supports development of a global SAF market using mechanisms such as book-and-claim, which can separate the physical location of renewable fuel from the airline or company purchasing its environmental attributes.
The data show why SAF remains one of aviation’s most difficult scaling challenges.
Production technology exists and commercial fuel is already entering aviation systems, but the physical volumes remain tiny compared with the size of the global jet fuel market.
Moving from less than one percent today toward a meaningful share of aviation demand will require not just more projects, but sustained investment across renewable energy, feedstocks, infrastructure and fuel production.
Sources
International Air Transport Association — SAF Production Volumes Still Disappointing, June 6, 2026
International Air Transport Association — Sustainable Aviation Fuel