Announced SAF Capacity Reaches 30 Million Tonnes
The global sustainable aviation fuel project pipeline continues to expand, but a growing gap is emerging between announced capacity and projects likely to reach commercial operation.
According to analysis published by the International Air Transport Association on June 26, 2026, around 200 SAF projects have now been announced worldwide.
Together, those projects represent as much as 30 million tonnes of potential annual SAF production capacity by 2030.
However, IATA estimates that only around 60 percent of the announced capacity is likely to materialise.
That would put actual global SAF capacity closer to 20 million tonnes by 2030 rather than the full volume currently represented by project announcements.
Only a Minority of the Pipeline Is Already Being Built
The development status of the project pipeline remains one of the sector’s biggest challenges.
IATA estimates that only around 35 percent of announced capacity is currently operational or under construction.
Many of the remaining projects are still in earlier phases of development and face risks including financing constraints, uncertain policy support, feedstock availability and technology scale-up.
The maturity of production pathways also varies significantly.
HEFA remains the most commercially established SAF pathway available for near-term expansion, while Alcohol-to-Jet and gasification Fischer–Tropsch technologies are still moving toward broader commercial deployment.
Power-to-Liquid projects have attracted substantial interest, but IATA expects large-scale production from the pathway to develop more slowly.
The result is that headline project announcements can significantly overstate the volume of fuel likely to reach the market within a given period.
Current Production Still Covers Less Than One Percent of Jet Fuel Demand
The scale-up challenge becomes clearer when the project pipeline is compared with current SAF production.
IATA expects global SAF output to reach approximately 2.4 million tonnes in 2026.
That represents only around 0.8 percent of total aviation fuel consumption.
Production increased from approximately 1 million tonnes in 2024 to 1.9 million tonnes in 2025, but the rate of growth is expected to slow in 2026.
Regional development is also uneven. IATA expects the Americas to account for around 40 percent of global SAF capacity by 2030, driven largely by projects in the United States.
Europe, North Asia and Asia-Pacific together are expected to contribute around 12 million tonnes, while Africa and the Middle East currently have significantly smaller project pipelines despite substantial potential feedstock resources.
The numbers highlight the central issue facing the SAF market: announcing projects is no longer enough.
The industry increasingly needs projects to secure financing, reach Final Investment Decision, begin construction and ultimately deliver commercial volumes if future aviation fuel targets are to be met.
Sources
International Air Transport Association — A Third of Announced SAF Capacity May Never Take Off, June 26, 2026
International Air Transport Association — SAF Production Volumes Still Disappointing, June 6, 2026